Senator Barack Obama was fund-raising Friday night in Philadelphia. But he was talking about "the Chicago way."

Channeling the mob drama, "The Untouchables," Mr. Obama said in reference to the general election rumble with the Republicans: "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun."

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...

So far, Obama's been less Al Capone than Fredo Corleone.

Down from 50-41 a month ago.  Among 1,547 likely voters.  So, it's a big sample of likely voters.

The good news is that Obama's still ahead despite McCain keeping him on the defensive nearly every day for a month, and he's now winning independents.  The bad news is that the lead has slipped a bit, and Obama is doing worse among white men and older voters, perhaps reflecting increased foreign policy concerns.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

from the theocrat gathering last night.  He had no business appearing before a crowd that doesn't believe in separation of church and state, is anti-choice and anti-gay rights.  Did he think he would win them over?  Did he think he would get a better reception than McCain?  Did he think he would get brownie points for showing up?  Whatever he thought is overriden by the terrible precedent set by having the presidential candidates of each party a joint appearance by presidential candidates before a religious crowd, not to mention a fundamentalist crowd.

But it's not Reille Hunter.  Rather, it's Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden.  And Hunter's troubles should weigh into Obama's thinking as to whether to tap Joe for the VP spot.

What's the trouble?  Well, to put is succinctly, Hunter is not only a lobbyist and former hedge fund manager who is the subject of two federal suits, but his Dad got him a job at MNBA (now Bank of America) when MBNA was Joe's largest contributor.  More below.

He's been scheduled to speak Wednesday night.

One way or the other, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will speak at the Democratic National Convention the night Barack Obama's running mate addresses the party.

Bayh is scheduled to speak at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 27th, the night dedicated to national security issues, according to Bayh’s office.

That’s also the night the vice presidential candidate will speak, fueling speculation Obama will choose a running mate with national security credentials.

http://www.indystar.com/...

Obama leads McCain by eight points, 44 percent to 36 percent among registered voters, and by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters.

Poll director Terry Madonna said that the survey shows that Obama hasn't been able to pull away despite signs it should be a big Democratic year in Pennsylvania.

"He's on third base, but so far he can't seem to find a way to get home," Madonna said. "Look at the underlying trends. The economy is a huge issue. Bush's ratings are terrible. But too many voters are concerned about Obama's experience, and don't yet have enough confidence in his ability to lead."

When asked whether, regardless of how they plan to vote in November, they would be concerned if Obama were elected president, 51 percent said yes.

http://www.philly.com/...

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent. McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent. Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds.  

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

mysterious African-Americans for McCain.  Yes, once again SUSA's state polling shows double-digit black support for McCain.  This time 14% in Virginia.  Despite national polling showing less than 5% African-American support for McCain.  That Obama is essentially tied with McCain in Virginia despite this is encouraging.

Poll was done between Friday and Sunday.

This is from the lead article current on Google News:

*The revelation damages the Democratic Party's image at a critical time.

Edwards joins a growing list of prominent Democrats -- from Gary Hart to Bill Clinton to former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer -- in having engaged in extramarital affairs*.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/...

Don't let them turn Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats into ones.  Because that's what their strategy is.  When it comes to the high cost of gas, Democrats need to play the demonization game as well as the Republicans.  But they're not.  While Newt Gingrich is out there on Faux and hate radio pushing his "drill now" bullshit, and the right-wing echo chamber is running on all cylinders, funded and encourage by Big Oil I'm sure, Democrats have been too defensive and tentative in their response and their attacks.  Mostly because they have been scared off by polls showing that 70& of the people want offshore drilling.  But those polls are deceptive because if you ask the question as, "are you afraid of environmental damage to beaches and the ocean due to offshore drilling," you'll probably get a 70% affirmative response as well.

Until Nancy Pelosi suggested him in late June, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/... not many people heard of Chet Edwards, Texas congressman, much less thought of him as VP material.  As a Democrat representing an overwhelmingly Republican district, stretching from the suburbs of Dallas/Ft. Worth to the exurbs of Austin, including Crawford, one would think he would be too conservative to warrant consideration.  But upon closer inspection, Edwards is not your typical white southern Democrat.  While he certainly would not be considered a model progressive, as discussed below, on several important issues he has taken progressive stances.

I hope the reports that Obama is seriously considering Tim Kaine as VP are untrue.  Or at least, he ends up not selecting him.  Because Tim Kaine should be an anathema to progressive Democrats on three important issues:  the distribution of wealth in this country, the environment and choice.  More below.

What happened was that the conservative press — Fox News and the National Review and columnists of every ilk — went fairly deliberately at her in a pretty systematic way ... and treated her as the candidate in a way that you just rarely see the Democrats try to do against Republicans. And I've said this before: I would never have my campaign engage in a concerted effort to make Cindy McCain an issue, and I would not expect the Democratic National Committee or people who were allied with me to do it. Because essentially, spouses are civilians. They didn't sign up for this. They're supporting their spouse. So it took a toll. If you start being subjected to rants by Sean Hannity and the like, day in, day out, that'll drive up your negatives.

http://www.glamour.com/...

They're coming into the final turn in the race to be Obama's running mate.  Some, like Strickland, Webb and Warner, have taken themselves out of the mix.  Others, like Clinton, don't stand a chance, in my view.

Here's a rundown of the contenders as I see it.  A poll follows.

With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.

Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters.

But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

Usually when a Democrat wraps up the presidential nomination, he seeks to move to the center. (Republicans don't have to.  After all, IOKIYAR).  That Obama has sought to do so is not surprising.  What is a surprising is that he appears not to be stopping at the center, but moving further right.  Right in the direction, and the arms, of the DLC.

Let's take some examples.

I used to have some admiration for John McCain.  In the 2000 primary, he took on the religious right, and was the victim of the Bush dirty tricks squad.  He fancied himself as an environmentalist.  He opposed Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and 2003.  He opposed torture and expressed doubts about Guantanamo.  He co-sponsored the campaign finance law with Russ Feingold.

But now it's clear that John McCain is a fraud.  Almost every day he's changing his position on one issue after the other.  Rejecting nearly every shred of progressivism and independence from the right-wing party line he had previously expressed.  People are starting to take notice, and Democrats should be hammering him with the flip-flop charge daily.

If the election were held today, 44 percent would vote for McCain, 42 percent for Obama, while 14 percent of likely voters remain undecided, according to the poll of 625 likely voters, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com.

. . . .

Voters age 18 to 34 preferred Obama by a wide margin, 55 percent to 31 percent. Among voters age 35 to 49, the two candidates were tied at 43 percent each. But McCain was preferred by voters 50 to 64, 48 percent to 39 percent, and by voters 65 and older, 50 percent to 34 percent.

http://www.lvrj.com/...